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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."